STRATEGYWeeks to result

Brinkmanship

Deliberate risk creation

Problem it solves

unclear strategic direction

Best for

High-stakes negotiations, conflict resolution

Not ideal for

Low-stakes situations, situations requiring absolute certainty

Overview

Why this framework exists

Brinkmanship is a strategic move that involves deliberately creating risk to induce an opponent to comply with one's wishes. It is a game of increasing risk, where the opponent is forced to weigh the potential costs and benefits of continuing to resist. The goal of brinkmanship is to create a situation where the opponent feels that the risk of continuing to resist is too high, and therefore decides to back down.

Core principles

3 total
  1. The creation of risk is a deliberate and calculated move.
  2. The risk created must be sufficiently intolerable to the opponent to induce them to comply.
  3. The brink is not a sharp precipice, but a slippery slope, getting gradually steeper.

Steps

4 steps
  1. Assess the situation
    Determine the stakes, the opponent's objectives and capabilities, and the potential risks and benefits of using brinkmanship.
    Pro tipConsider the potential consequences of failure, and have a backup plan in place.
    WarningBrinkmanship can be a high-risk strategy, and should be used with caution.
  2. Create a risk
    Take an action that creates a risk, such as making a threat or taking a bold move.
    Pro tipMake sure the risk is credible and believable, and that the opponent understands the potential consequences.
    WarningAvoid creating a risk that is too high, as this can lead to unintended consequences.
  3. Escalate the risk
    Gradually increase the risk, making it more intolerable for the opponent to continue resisting.
    Pro tipUse the principle of 'chicken in real time' to create a sense of urgency and increase the risk.
    WarningBe careful not to overplay your hand, as this can lead to a breakdown in negotiations.
  4. Negotiate a resolution
    Use the created risk as leverage to negotiate a resolution that meets your objectives.
    Pro tipBe flexible and willing to compromise, but also be clear and firm in your demands.
    WarningAvoid making concessions that undermine your position or create a perception of weakness.

Checklist

Saved in your browser

Examples

2 cases
The Cuban Missile Crisis

The United States and the Soviet Union engaged in a game of brinkmanship, with the United States threatening to launch a nuclear attack if the Soviet Union did not withdraw its missiles from Cuba.

OutcomeThe Soviet Union eventually backed down, and the crisis was resolved without a nuclear war.
Labor negotiations

A company and a labor union engage in a game of brinkmanship, with the company threatening to lock out the union if it does not agree to certain concessions.

OutcomeThe union eventually agrees to the concessions, avoiding a lockout and a potential loss of jobs.

Common mistakes

3 traps
Overplaying your hand
Creating a risk that is too high can lead to unintended consequences, such as a breakdown in negotiations or an escalation of the conflict.
Underestimating the opponent
Failing to assess the opponent's objectives and capabilities can lead to a miscalculation of the risk, and a failure to achieve the desired outcome.
Lacking a backup plan
Failing to have a backup plan in place can lead to a lack of flexibility and a inability to adapt to changing circumstances.

Origin story

How this framework came to be

The term 'brinkmanship' was coined by Thomas Schelling, who described it as a strategy of taking an adversary to the brink of disaster in order to get them to blink first. The concept has been applied in various fields, including international relations, business, and personal relationships.

Source

Traced to primary
Source · BOOK
The Art of Strategy: A Game Theorist's Guide to Success in Business and Life
Dixit, Avinash K. · 2008
Open source →

Related frameworks

Browse all Strategy →