STRATEGYMonths to result

Conditions of Demand Framework

Demand decline

Problem it solves

unclear strategic direction

Best for

Businesses in declining industries

Not ideal for

Growing industries

Overview

Why this framework exists

The process by which demand declines and the characteristics of the market segments that remain have a major influence on competition in the decline phase. The framework considers the degree of uncertainty perceived by competitors about whether demand will continue to decline, the rate and pattern of decline, and the structure of remaining demand pockets.

Core principles

3 total
  1. The degree of uncertainty perceived by competitors about demand decline affects competition
  2. The rate and pattern of decline influence the volatility of the industry
  3. The structure of remaining demand pockets determines the profitability of the remaining competitors

Steps

3 steps
  1. Assess the degree of uncertainty
    Determine the level of uncertainty perceived by competitors about demand decline
    Pro tipConsider the industry's history and trends
    WarningUncertainty can lead to bitter warfare among competitors
  2. Analyze the rate and pattern of decline
    Examine the rate at which demand is declining and the pattern of decline
    Pro tipConsider the impact of short-run factors on the analysis
    WarningA slow decline can be masked by short-run factors
  3. Evaluate the structure of remaining demand pockets
    Assess the characteristics of the remaining market segments
    Pro tipConsider the prospects for profitability in each segment
    WarningSome segments may be more favorable than others

Checklist

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Examples

2 cases
Rayon industry

The rayon industry experienced a decline in demand due to the rise of synthetic fibers. The industry's uncertainty about future demand led to bitter warfare among competitors.

OutcomeThe industry's profitability declined significantly
Acetylene industry

The acetylene industry declined due to the rise of ethylene as a substitute. The industry's certainty about future decline led to an orderly withdrawal of capacity.

OutcomeThe industry's profitability declined, but the withdrawal of capacity was managed effectively

Common mistakes

3 traps
Underestimating uncertainty
Failing to consider the level of uncertainty perceived by competitors can lead to poor strategic decisions
Misjudging the rate and pattern of decline
Incorrectly assessing the rate and pattern of decline can lead to inaccurate predictions about the industry's future
Overlooking the structure of remaining demand pockets
Failing to evaluate the characteristics of the remaining market segments can lead to missed opportunities for profitability

Origin story

How this framework came to be

The framework is based on the concept that demand decline can lead to increased competition and decreased profitability. By understanding the conditions of demand, businesses can make informed decisions about their strategy in a declining industry.

Source

Traced to primary
Source · BOOK
Competitive Strategy
Michael E. Porter · 1980
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