Present-Value Target Price
Sell when the stock hits today's fair value, not at a guessed future price.
Most investors define target price as 'where I think the stock will be in 2025'. That definition is useless — you don't know future prices and you don't know timing. Sasha redefines target price as the present-value fair price you would pay today for the business based on your best current estimate. If the market price is significantly below that, you have upside; if it reaches that, you sell.
The target moves with the business. The valuation you set in 2016 is not the one that triggers a sale in 2024 — it updates each quarter. This severs the emotional bond between entry price and exit decision: the question is never 'have I made enough?' but 'is there modeled upside left from here?'.
The rule is mechanical: when the stock hits your current fair-value estimate, you sell, regardless of how you feel about the company. Sasha sold AMD at his target and was called a hater; he sold Lucid at $40 and tripled his money on a stock that later collapsed to $4.
- Target price is what you would pay today, not what you predict the price will be tomorrow.
- The target updates every quarter as the underlying valuation changes.
- Selling is mechanical, not emotional — the rule overrides your feelings about the company.
- Past entry price is irrelevant to the sell decision; only present-day upside matters.
- A small overshoot tolerance (e.g. 5% off target) is allowed if other holdings have higher upside.
- Set fair value as present valueOutput a single present-value fair price (or range) from your bottom-up model. This is the price you would pay today to own the whole business based on current information.
- Buy only at a meaningful discountEnter when market price is significantly below fair value. The bigger the discount, the larger your modeled upside and your margin of safety.
- Refresh fair value every quarterUpdate the fair-value number after each filing, earnings call, and competitive shift. Sometimes it goes up, sometimes it falls — your sell trigger moves accordingly.WarningDon't anchor on the original fair value you set years ago — anchoring breaks the entire system.
- Trigger sell at targetWhen market price meets your current fair-value estimate, sell. No exceptions for sentiment, brand love, or 'just a bit higher' thinking.Pro tipIf sentiment hasn't fully unwound but your modeled upside is gone, sell anyway — the next leg up is no longer your edge.
- Allow small tolerances against opportunity costIf a position is within ~5% of target and another holding has materially larger upside, shave the position early and redistribute. Mechanical doesn't mean rigid to the penny.
Sasha bought Lucid around $11-15 as a small speculative position based on Saudi backing, ex-Tesla design talent, and the Arizona factory. When EV sentiment ran the stock to $40 he sold despite fan-boy backlash, because his valuation triggered the exit.
Sasha held AMD for years, used their products, admired Lisa Su, but sold the entire position when share price reached his fair value because no upside remained.
Sasha developed this rule after watching retail investors freeze on the sell decision — holding through 'diamond hands' loyalty until stocks collapsed. He treats it as the harder half of investing: deciding when to buy is structured, but selling without a rule is where most people destroy returns.