Pro Sports as a Risk-Adjusted Long-Hold (the PE Liquidity Flip)
Major-league franchises aren't trophies — they're a long-duration asset that beats stocks risk-adjusted, and private equity is now manufacturing the liquidity that was always missing.
Kraft's core investment frame: ignore week-to-week market noise and underwrite franchises on structurally rising demand for live sports. Expect risk-adjusted outperformance, not home runs — 'returns that beat the stock market without taking much more risk.' The newer wrinkle is that PE entry (NFL approved passive stakes up to 10% per team, 6-year hold, in Aug 2024) is creating liquidity in a historically illiquid asset, which inverts the old limited-partner discount and, 5-7 years out, opens the door to ETFs and retail vehicles.
- Underwrite on long-term reach and engagement, not the market's hour-by-hour mood — 'they own Sundays'; live-sports demand is outstripping supply.
- Expect risk-adjusted outperformance, not multiples: 'you probably won't get 3-4x your money, but my guess is you're going to get returns that beat the stock market over that period and without taking that much more risk.'
- PE manufactures liquidity in a previously illiquid asset — 'these funds can get liquid in six years,' then raise follow-on funds and roll it.
- The limited-partner discount inverts: LP stakes historically sold at a 20-30% discount to control deals; Kraft sees them heading to 'par or even premium.'
- Liquidity compounds into democratized access — 'five, six, seven years down the road' he expects ETFs and other ways for ordinary investors who can't write a PE check or buy a team to buy into public sports.
Articulated most fully in a 2024 Sportico interview as the NFL was opening franchises to private-equity minority investors, and reprised on the MIT Sloan SSAC 2025 panel.