STRATEGYMonths to result

Techniques for Forecasting Framework

Forecast the evolution of an emerging industry

Problem it solves

unclear strategic direction

Best for

Firms operating in emerging industries

Not ideal for

Firms operating in mature industries

Overview

Why this framework exists

The Techniques for Forecasting Framework provides a structured approach to forecasting the evolution of an emerging industry. It highlights the importance of considering factors such as the industry's developmental stage, the firm's resources and capabilities, and the potential risks and rewards of entry.

Core principles

3 total
  1. The evolution of an emerging industry can be forecasted by considering the industry's developmental stage.
  2. Firms should consider their resources and capabilities when forecasting the evolution of an emerging industry.
  3. The potential risks and rewards of entry should be carefully evaluated when forecasting the evolution of an emerging industry.

Steps

3 steps
  1. Assess the Industry's Developmental Stage
    Determine the industry's current stage of development and identify the key challenges and opportunities that arise at this stage.
    Pro tipUse the framework to identify the industry's developmental stage and to develop a forecast that takes into account the unique challenges and opportunities of this stage.
    WarningFailing to accurately assess the industry's developmental stage can lead to inaccurate forecasts and poor strategic decisions.
  2. Evaluate the Firm's Resources and Capabilities
    Evaluate the firm's resources and capabilities and determine whether they are sufficient to support the firm's strategy in the emerging industry.
    Pro tipUse the framework to identify the key resources and capabilities required for success in the emerging industry and to develop a forecast that takes into account the firm's strengths and weaknesses.
    WarningFailing to evaluate the firm's resources and capabilities can lead to inaccurate forecasts and poor strategic decisions.
  3. Evaluate the Potential Risks and Rewards of Entry
    Evaluate the potential risks and rewards of entry into the emerging industry and determine whether the potential benefits outweigh the potential costs.
    Pro tipUse the framework to identify the key risks and rewards of entry into the emerging industry and to develop a forecast that takes into account the firm's risk tolerance and goals.
    WarningFailing to evaluate the potential risks and rewards of entry can lead to inaccurate forecasts and poor strategic decisions.

Checklist

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Examples

1 cases
The Fiber Optics Industry

The fiber optics industry is an example of an emerging industry that requires careful forecasting of its evolution. Firms operating in this industry must assess the industry's developmental stage, evaluate their resources and capabilities, and evaluate the potential risks and rewards of entry.

OutcomeFirms that carefully forecast the evolution of the fiber optics industry are more likely to achieve success and to avoid the risks associated with inaccurate forecasts.

Common mistakes

3 traps
Failing to Assess the Industry's Developmental Stage
Failing to assess the industry's developmental stage can lead to inaccurate forecasts and poor strategic decisions.
Failing to Evaluate the Firm's Resources and Capabilities
Failing to evaluate the firm's resources and capabilities can lead to inaccurate forecasts and poor strategic decisions.
Failing to Evaluate the Potential Risks and Rewards of Entry
Failing to evaluate the potential risks and rewards of entry can lead to inaccurate forecasts and poor strategic decisions.

Origin story

How this framework came to be

The Techniques for Forecasting Framework is based on the concept that forecasting the evolution of an emerging industry requires a structured approach that takes into account a variety of factors, including the industry's developmental stage, the firm's resources and capabilities, and the potential risks and rewards of entry. The framework provides a tool for firms to evaluate these factors and to develop a forecast of the industry's evolution.

Source

Traced to primary
Source · BOOK
Competitive Strategy
Michael E. Porter · 1980
Open source →

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