The Pre-Mortem Method
A decision-making technique that counteracts the five cognitive biases (optimism, confirmation,
A decision-making technique that counteracts the five cognitive biases (optimism, confirmation, self-serving, sunk-cost, groupthink) that prevent us from seeing why our ideas will fail. Instead of asking 'What could go wrong?', imagine the project has already failed and work backwards to explain why. Studies show this method increases accuracy of predicting outcomes by 30%. Bartlett used it to avoid a costly podcast network expansion.
- Imagining failure before it happens exposes blind spots that optimism actively hides.
- Work backwards from a hypothetical disaster to surface risks you would never generate by asking what could go wrong.
- Cognitive biases cluster around success stories, so you must deliberately construct failure stories to counteract them.
- The team member most likely to have the answer is the one who fears speaking up, so structured pre-mortems give them cover.
- Predicting your own failure with specificity is the clearest signal that a plan needs revision before execution begins.
- Set the stageGather relevant team members and clearly explain the purpose: to identify potential risks and weaknesses, not to criticize the project or individuals. Make it psychologically safe to be negative.Pro tipWhen Bartlett surveyed 1,000 startup founders, 87% were clear on why their idea would succeed but only 6% could articulate why it might fail. This asymmetry is the core problem this method solves.
- Fast-forward to failureAsk the team to imagine the project has already failed completely. Not 'might fail' but HAS failed. Encourage vivid visualization of the scenario. The subtle shift from hypothetical to definitive dramatically changes the quality of thinking.Pro tipThe linguistic shift from 'What could go wrong?' to 'It failed. Explain why.' is crucial. The first invites optimistic dismissal; the second demands causal analysis.
- Brainstorm reasons independently on paperEach team member independently generates a list of reasons the project failed, considering both internal and external factors. This MUST be done independently and in writing to prevent groupthink from contaminating the exercise.WarningDo not brainstorm reasons verbally as a group first. Groupthink bias will cause people to conform around the first few reasons mentioned, suppressing original critical thinking.
- Share and discuss openlyHave each team member share their reasons. Foster open, non-judgmental discussion. Then turn the question on the leader: 'Why do YOU think this is a bad idea?' Often the leader's subconscious has been harboring concerns that surface only when directly confronted.Pro tipWhen Bartlett asked himself why his podcast network was a bad idea, the answer came instantly: 'focus.' His subconscious had known the answer all along but needed the structured invitation to voice it.
- Develop contingency plans or kill the projectBased on identified risks, either create mitigation strategies for each risk, or kill the project if the risks outweigh the potential. This is not about finding reasons to abandon ideas, but about prevention being better than cure.
Skipping the pre-mortem because the team is excited
Excitement and momentum make the pre-mortem feel unnecessary, but these are precisely the conditions where the five biases (optimism, confirmation, self-serving, sunk-cost, groupthink) are strongest. The more excited the team, the more essential the exercise.
Only applying it to business decisions
The pre-mortem is equally powerful for personal decisions: choosing a career path, selecting a partner, making large investments. Imagine the failure scenario and work backwards to identify what caused it.
This framework comes from Law 25: The Power of Negative Manifestation in Steven Bartlett's Diary of a CEO.
Source · BOOK
The Diary of a CEO