STRATEGYDays to result

The Pre-Mortem Process

Predict failure before it happens by imagining the project has already failed

Problem it solves

unclear strategic direction

Best for

Teams launching significant projects who want to identify and mitigate risks before they materialize

Not ideal for

Solo projects or tasks too small to warrant structured risk assessment

Overview

Why this framework exists

The Pre-Mortem Process is conducted before a project launches, not after. The team imagines the project has already failed and works backward to identify what went wrong. This simple inversion is profoundly effective because it gives people psychological permission to voice concerns that they would suppress in a normal planning meeting. In a standard planning session, raising concerns feels like being negative or unsupportive. In a pre-mortem, raising concerns is the explicit purpose of the exercise. Shreyas Doshi used this process extensively at Stripe, where it fundamentally changed the culture around risk identification. Teams became more comfortable surfacing problems early, which prevented costly late-stage failures. The process works by gathering the team before the project begins, having each person independently write down potential failure modes, sharing and discussing all failure modes as a group, prioritizing the most likely and most damaging failures, and creating specific mitigation plans for the top risks.

Core principles

4 total
  1. In a pre-mortem, raising concerns is the purpose, not a distraction
  2. The most expensive failures are usually predictable by someone on the team
  3. People suppress concerns in planning meetings because voicing them feels negative
  4. Written independent responses prevent groupthink and anchoring bias

Steps

3 steps
  1. Gather the team and frame the exercise
    Before the project begins, assemble all relevant stakeholders including engineering, design, operations, and product. Frame the exercise clearly: Imagine it is six months from now and this project has completely failed. What went wrong? Emphasize that the goal is to identify as many potential failure modes as possible and that there are no wrong answers.
    Pro tipInclude people from adjacent teams who interact with the project. They often see risks that the core team is blind to.
  2. Collect failure modes independently before group discussion
    Give each person five to ten minutes to independently write down every way the project could fail. This independent writing phase is critical because it prevents the first speaker from anchoring the entire group's thinking. Once collected, share all failure modes with the group and discuss. Cluster similar ones and add new ones that emerge from discussion.
    Pro tipUse anonymous submission if the team has significant power dynamics. Junior members are more likely to share genuine concerns when not identified.
    WarningDo not allow the project leader to speak first during the discussion phase. Their opinion will anchor the group.
  3. Prioritize and create mitigation plans for the top risks
    Rank all identified failure modes by probability and severity. Focus mitigation efforts on the top five to seven risks, distinguishing between risks you can actively mitigate and risks you must accept but monitor. Create a specific mitigation plan for each top risk with a clear owner and timeline. Revisit the pre-mortem findings at key project milestones.
    Pro tipSchedule pre-mortem review checkpoints at each major project milestone. New risks emerge as projects evolve.

Checklist

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Examples

1 cases
Stripe risk identification transformation

When Shreyas Doshi introduced pre-mortem meetings at Stripe, teams initially resisted the exercise as unnecessary overhead. However, after the first few pre-mortems successfully predicted and prevented costly late-stage failures, the practice became embedded in Stripe's project culture. Teams began requesting pre-mortems for any significant initiative.

OutcomePre-mortem meetings became standard at Stripe, fundamentally changing how the organization identified and managed risk
Lenny's Podcast with Shreyas Doshi, 2022

Common mistakes

2 traps
Running a pre-mortem as a one-time event
The pre-mortem loses most of its value if done once at project kickoff and never revisited. Risks evolve as projects progress. Without periodic review, the pre-mortem becomes a forgotten document rather than a living risk management tool.
Allowing the exercise to become performative
If the team perceives that pre-mortem findings are not actually acted upon, they will stop contributing genuinely. The exercise must lead to real changes in project plans and resource allocation.

Origin story

How this framework came to be

Shreyas Doshi refined this process during his tenure at Stripe, where he joined as the fourth product manager and later became Stripe's first PM manager. He observed that the most expensive project failures were always predictable in retrospect because someone on the team had seen the problem coming but did not feel empowered to raise it. The pre-mortem created a structured container where voicing concerns was not just acceptable but required.

Source

Traced to primary
Source · PODCAST
Shreyas Doshi on Pre-Mortems, the LNO Framework, Three Levels of Product Work, and Strategy vs. Execution
Shreyas Doshi · 2022
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