The Risk Muscle Method
Accept you could lose everything, then mitigate the chances that you will
The Risk Muscle Method reframes risk from a scary leap-of-faith into a skill that improves with practice. Squibb's core thesis is that you should accept you could lose everything but mitigate the chances that you will. Risk is not about blindfolds and gambling; it is about being smart, calculated, and precise.
The framework has three components: scenario visualization (imagine both worst-case and best-case outcomes before every major decision), muscle building (take progressively larger risks aligned with your purpose to develop judgment and confidence), and standing your ground (resist pressure from others trying to dissuade you from purpose-aligned risks while avoiding shortcut risks that bypass ethics).
Squibb distinguishes between building risks (taken to create something aligned with your dream) and shortcut risks (taken to dodge or cut corners). Building risks are healthy even when they fail because they generate learning. Shortcut risks are toxic because they compromise your integrity and often backfire spectacularly.
- Accept that you could lose everything, but mitigate the chances that you will
- The more risks you take, the luckier you get, because risk is how you give yourself chances
- Risk is a muscle that gets stronger the more you train and use it
- Test every risk against your purpose and dream: does this align with why you started?
- Building risks (creating something) are healthy; shortcut risks (cutting corners) are toxic
- Imagine Best-AND-Worst-Case ScenariosBefore any major decision, vividly visualize the worst-case scenario. Put yourself there mentally and ask if you could survive it. If you can stomach the worst case, flip to the best case and let it inspire you. This dual visualization removes the paralysis of fear and clarifies whether the risk is worth taking at this moment in your life.Pro tipIf you visualize the worst case and realize you can live with it, fear can no longer hurt you. You have already been through it in your mind. Now let the best-case scenario pull you forward.WarningYour appetite for risk is purely individual and changes over time. If the worst-case scenario is truly intolerable at this moment, the answer is to derisk or delay, not to abandon the dream entirely.
- Build the Muscle Through Progressive RiskTake progressively larger risks aligned with your purpose. Start with small bets and learn from both successes and failures. With each risk taken, your judgment sharpens and your confidence grows. Over time, what once felt like terrifying gambles become normal business decisions with pros and cons. Test each risk against your purpose anchors: will it take you closer to your dream? Will it be fun?Pro tipInstinct is just passion in disguise. As you build your risk muscle, you develop an instinct for opportunities that align with your purpose, allowing faster and better decisions.WarningNever take a risk where you have not considered the worst-case scenario or taken precautions to avoid it. Being bold without being smart is recklessness, not risk-taking.
- Know When to Stand Your GroundThere will come a time when someone tries to dissuade you from a risk. Always be open to feedback and new information, but do not let other people's fears cloud your judgment. If you have already tested the risk against your purpose and dream, it should take something very compelling to change your mind. The final filter: if the risk is taken to build something, it is likely right; if it is a shortcut or dodge, be wary.Pro tipIf you do not learn to take risks, you are agreeing to live according to other people's rules and priorities. Diverge from the norm and people will try to stop you. Learn to block out voices that erode your conviction without providing new information.WarningDistinguish between building risks and shortcut risks. Squibb accepted an accountant's advice to carry forward income to reduce taxes, which turned out to be illegal. He vowed never again to take risks that were about schemes and shortcuts.
Natasha and her husband had been saving for a house but faced the choice of funding her dream business or continuing to save. They visualized both scenarios: worst case, they lose some savings but still have their skills and each other; best case, they build a business that generates enough to buy a house later. Her husband summed it up as one step back to take ten forward.
Squibb discovered that the Hong Kong Sevens rugby tournament had failed to purchase the dotcom version of their URL. He bought it for fifteen dollars and built a website promoting non-rugby activities during the event. When the organizers sent an aggressive cease-and-desist letter, he hired lawyers who discovered they did not actually own the trademark they claimed he was infringing.
Squibb developed this framework through running nineteen businesses across multiple industries and countries. His most dramatic risk example was illegally posting HelpBnk advertisements on the London Underground to reinforce the message of giving help for free. He also nearly lost his business Fluid multiple times, including when a major bank suspended payments for ninety days, and when he bought the Hong Kong Sevens dotcom URL for fifteen dollars and then fought off a legal threat from their lawyers. Each experience refined his understanding of when to take risks and how to evaluate them.