STRATEGYOngoing practice

The Risk Muscle Method

Accept you could lose everything, then mitigate the chances that you will

Problem it solves

unclear strategic direction

Best for

Entrepreneurs and decision-makers who need a systematic way to evaluate, take, and learn from risks at every stage of business growth

Not ideal for

People looking for risk-free approaches to business or those in highly regulated industries where risk frameworks must follow compliance protocols

Overview

Why this framework exists

The Risk Muscle Method reframes risk from a scary leap-of-faith into a skill that improves with practice. Squibb's core thesis is that you should accept you could lose everything but mitigate the chances that you will. Risk is not about blindfolds and gambling; it is about being smart, calculated, and precise.

The framework has three components: scenario visualization (imagine both worst-case and best-case outcomes before every major decision), muscle building (take progressively larger risks aligned with your purpose to develop judgment and confidence), and standing your ground (resist pressure from others trying to dissuade you from purpose-aligned risks while avoiding shortcut risks that bypass ethics).

Squibb distinguishes between building risks (taken to create something aligned with your dream) and shortcut risks (taken to dodge or cut corners). Building risks are healthy even when they fail because they generate learning. Shortcut risks are toxic because they compromise your integrity and often backfire spectacularly.

Core principles

5 total
  1. Accept that you could lose everything, but mitigate the chances that you will
  2. The more risks you take, the luckier you get, because risk is how you give yourself chances
  3. Risk is a muscle that gets stronger the more you train and use it
  4. Test every risk against your purpose and dream: does this align with why you started?
  5. Building risks (creating something) are healthy; shortcut risks (cutting corners) are toxic

Steps

3 steps
  1. Imagine Best-AND-Worst-Case Scenarios
    Before any major decision, vividly visualize the worst-case scenario. Put yourself there mentally and ask if you could survive it. If you can stomach the worst case, flip to the best case and let it inspire you. This dual visualization removes the paralysis of fear and clarifies whether the risk is worth taking at this moment in your life.
    Pro tipIf you visualize the worst case and realize you can live with it, fear can no longer hurt you. You have already been through it in your mind. Now let the best-case scenario pull you forward.
    WarningYour appetite for risk is purely individual and changes over time. If the worst-case scenario is truly intolerable at this moment, the answer is to derisk or delay, not to abandon the dream entirely.
  2. Build the Muscle Through Progressive Risk
    Take progressively larger risks aligned with your purpose. Start with small bets and learn from both successes and failures. With each risk taken, your judgment sharpens and your confidence grows. Over time, what once felt like terrifying gambles become normal business decisions with pros and cons. Test each risk against your purpose anchors: will it take you closer to your dream? Will it be fun?
    Pro tipInstinct is just passion in disguise. As you build your risk muscle, you develop an instinct for opportunities that align with your purpose, allowing faster and better decisions.
    WarningNever take a risk where you have not considered the worst-case scenario or taken precautions to avoid it. Being bold without being smart is recklessness, not risk-taking.
  3. Know When to Stand Your Ground
    There will come a time when someone tries to dissuade you from a risk. Always be open to feedback and new information, but do not let other people's fears cloud your judgment. If you have already tested the risk against your purpose and dream, it should take something very compelling to change your mind. The final filter: if the risk is taken to build something, it is likely right; if it is a shortcut or dodge, be wary.
    Pro tipIf you do not learn to take risks, you are agreeing to live according to other people's rules and priorities. Diverge from the norm and people will try to stop you. Learn to block out voices that erode your conviction without providing new information.
    WarningDistinguish between building risks and shortcut risks. Squibb accepted an accountant's advice to carry forward income to reduce taxes, which turned out to be illegal. He vowed never again to take risks that were about schemes and shortcuts.

Checklist

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Examples

2 cases
Natasha the Vegan Patty Lady

Natasha and her husband had been saving for a house but faced the choice of funding her dream business or continuing to save. They visualized both scenarios: worst case, they lose some savings but still have their skills and each other; best case, they build a business that generates enough to buy a house later. Her husband summed it up as one step back to take ten forward.

OutcomeThey invested 6,500 dollars matched by Squibb. Natasha has since sold thousands of patties, got stocked by multiple retailers, and funded equipment through crowdfunding. The risk paid off because it was carefully considered against both scenarios.
The Hong Kong Sevens URL

Squibb discovered that the Hong Kong Sevens rugby tournament had failed to purchase the dotcom version of their URL. He bought it for fifteen dollars and built a website promoting non-rugby activities during the event. When the organizers sent an aggressive cease-and-desist letter, he hired lawyers who discovered they did not actually own the trademark they claimed he was infringing.

OutcomeThe organizers ended up paying Squibb to obtain the URL. A fifteen-dollar risk turned into a profit because he stood his ground when he believed he was in the right.

Common mistakes

3 traps
Treating risk as gambling rather than skill development
Risk-taking is not putting on a blindfold and stumbling about. It is being smart, calculated, and precise about when to try something and how to stack the odds in your favor. Treating risks as coin flips rather than informed decisions leads to ruin.
Taking shortcut risks instead of building risks
Squibb's accountant advised creative tax avoidance that turned out to be illegal. The lesson: avoid risks that offer dodges or shortcuts. They feel too good to be true because they are. Focus on risks that build sustainable value.
Sinking everything into unfamiliar territory without derisking
Instead of investing his entire fortune in building a sweet brand (Bizzies) from scratch in an industry he knew nothing about, Squibb co-ventured with an existing confectionery startup (Tasty Mates), reducing his risk while still pursuing the opportunity.

Origin story

How this framework came to be

Squibb developed this framework through running nineteen businesses across multiple industries and countries. His most dramatic risk example was illegally posting HelpBnk advertisements on the London Underground to reinforce the message of giving help for free. He also nearly lost his business Fluid multiple times, including when a major bank suspended payments for ninety days, and when he bought the Hong Kong Sevens dotcom URL for fifteen dollars and then fought off a legal threat from their lawyers. Each experience refined his understanding of when to take risks and how to evaluate them.

Source

Traced to primary
Source · BOOK
What's Your Dream?
Simon Squibb · 2025
Open source →

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