15frameworks
Showing 1–15 of 15
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The TACO-FAFO SpectrumIn-depth
Diagnose where any actor falls between Trump backing down and consequences
Wars of Choice vs. Wars of Defense — The Political Sustainability TestIn-depth
Democracies sustain wars they were attacked into; wars of choice erode politically until withdrawal
The North Korea Nuclear PlaybookIn-depth
States under existential military pressure accumulate multiple bombs to make preemption irrational
The Escalation TrapIn-depth
Precision bombing creates a 3-stage ladder where tactical success breeds strategic failure
The Four-Stage Escalation Trap
Bombing a determined adversary triggers a deterministic trap with only two exits
The C-Minus WarningIn-depth
We barely survived industrialisation — AI-era equivalents are unsurvivable
The Fiction-Reality GapIn-depth
Shared stories drive cooperation — divergence from reality breeds conflict
The Silicon Curtain — Divide-and-Rule at Civilizational Scale
The oldest imperial tactic is running at civilizational scale via algorithms
FACE RIPS — The Eight Dimensions of Near-Term AI DystopiaIn-depth
Map AI disruption across Freedom, Accountability, Connection, Economics, Reality, Innovation, Power, Safety
The Four Inevitables
AI's trajectory is locked in; humanity only controls which outcome it gets
Post-WWII Order Disintegration as Investment MacroIn-depth
The 1945 stability architecture is collapsing — price in high-variance geopolitical tail risk now
The $15 Quadrillion MagnetIn-depth
Economic gravity makes rational stopping impossible once you're inside the event horizon
Four-Dimensional Power AuditIn-depth
Real great-power competition is won upstream — in minerals, tech, and standards, not missiles
The G-Zero WorldIn-depth
When the hegemon withdraws and no one replaces it, the powerful write their own rules
The AGI Power PumpIn-depth
AGI is a meta-advantage that compounds across every competitive domain simultaneously