overconfidence

Expertise builds confidence faster than it builds competence — and experts are the most dangerous victims

The Treasury's overconfidence cycle: excluding local knowledge produces bad decisions, then punishes locals for the failure.

Use base rates from similar projects, not your optimistic inside view

In a crisis, let go of the methods that got you here

Immunize decisions against overconfidence by imagining failure in advance

Combat the illusion that what you see is all there is