STRATEGY6-18 months per branch85% confidence

Sub-20 Branch Cap Model

Size each branch to stay under $20M so central infrastructure can support it without a local management layer

Problem it solves

Multi-location operators build branches that outgrow central support and force costly local management layers they cannot afford.

Best for

Home-service operators running centralized back-office functions who want predictable branch economics.

Not ideal for

Operators targeting dominant metro-market share in a single geography where scale beyond $20M in one branch is the goal.

Overview

Why this framework exists

Rather than maximizing revenue per branch, Peterman Brothers deliberately targets Tier 2 markets where the addressable market naturally caps a branch around $15-20M. At that size, the central call center, marketing team, install-management function, and finance stack can support the branch without adding local service managers, field supervisors, or finance staff. The branch runs on three people: a branch manager, a dispatcher, and a warehouse coordinator. This keeps branch-level overhead low and margins predictable. The cap is not a ceiling imposed by the market but a selection criterion when choosing which markets to enter.

Core principles

5 total
  1. Market selection determines branch ceiling; don't fight it
  2. Central infrastructure is the asset; branches are distribution points
  3. Overhead added at the branch level destroys the economics of multi-location
  4. Tier 2 markets let you win without competing with Chicago-scale players
  5. Three-person branch staff is the benchmark at full run rate

Steps

3 steps
  1. Screen markets by size ceiling
    Target Tier 2 cities like Dayton, Lexington, Evansville, or Lafayette. The goal is a market that can sustain a business but cannot realistically grow beyond $20M, which is the threshold where you would need to add expensive local management.
    Pro tipIf the market feels like it could become a $30M branch, skip it. You are not equipped to support that from a central infrastructure unless you add regional overhead.
    WarningDo not confuse a competitive market for a large one. Tier 2 can still be competitive; the screen is revenue ceiling, not ease of entry.
  2. Launch with minimal branch infrastructure
    Staff the branch with exactly three people at steady state: branch manager, dispatcher, warehouse coordinator. All other functions (CSR, marketing, finance, install management, sales management) remain central.
    Pro tipResist adding a local service manager as a comfort move. If dispatch is overwhelmed, fix the central call-center capacity first.
    WarningThe $9M Bloomington branch with three staff only works because the central infrastructure is already mature. Do not attempt this model before the central layer is proven.
  3. Track branch revenue against the $20M ceiling annually
    If a branch approaches the cap, assess whether central infrastructure can stretch or whether a new market should absorb incremental growth. The branch is not the unit of growth ambition; the network is.
    WarningA branch that consistently out-earns the model is a sign to open an adjacent market, not to add local management and erode the model.

Checklist

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Examples

1 cases
Bloomington, Indiana branch

Peterman Brothers operates a Bloomington branch at approximately $8-9M in annual revenue. The entire branch is staffed by three people: a branch manager, a dispatcher, and a warehouse coordinator. All call center, marketing, finance, and install management functions are handled centrally from Indianapolis. This is the explicit model target for every branch.

Outcome$8-9M branch revenue supported by three branch-level staff; no local service managers or field supervisors required.

Common mistakes

2 traps
Targeting large metros that need local mgmt layers
Peterman explicitly avoids Chicago. A market that requires a $30M branch to justify entry will also require local leadership infrastructure that the central model cannot support cost-effectively.
Adding local managers as a comfort move when branches grow
The temptation when a branch hits $10M is to hire a service manager or field supervisor. Doing so breaks the economics. The model only works if central infrastructure can stretch to cover the branch.

Origin story

How this framework came to be

Extracted from Owned & Operated ($100M HVAC episode). Chad Peterman described his Bloomington branch doing $8-9M with only three staff as the proof case, and stated the cap as an explicit selection rule when choosing new markets.

Source

Traced to primary
Source · PODCAST
Owned and Operated: He Built a $100M HVAC Business (Chad Peterman, Peterman Brothers)
John Wilson
Open source →

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