The 150/30 Validation Rule
Prove demand by getting 150 people to raise a hand and 30 to have a real conversation before you build
Before building anything, run one of three low-cost campaigns to see if strangers will take a free action: a waiting list, a WhatsApp group, or a free online assessment/quiz. The bar is 150 sign-ups. If you cannot get 150 people to do something free, you will never get 150 to buy, so the idea is dead. 150 matters because it lets you then have real conversations with about 30 of them, and 30 is Priestley's threshold for statistically significant feedback. It should be reachable with DMs, a Facebook group, and a LinkedIn or Twitter post, not by grinding every waking hour. The campaign is the cheapest possible kill-switch for a bad idea.
- A free action is a low bar; failing it means the idea is dead
- 150 sign-ups earns you ~30 real conversations
- 30 conversations is a statistically significant sample
- Validation should be easy reach, not an all-out grind
- Choose one of three campaignsSet up a waiting-list landing page, a WhatsApp group, or a free online assessment for the idea.
- Ask five qualifying questionsAt sign-up, capture name and email plus what they currently do, what they want to achieve, their biggest barrier, and their budget.Pro tipOffer a small prize (e.g. $500 of product) to lift response.
- Drive 150 sign-ups cheaplyCirculate via DMs, a Facebook group, and a LinkedIn or Twitter post; the target is 150 free sign-ups.WarningIf reaching 150 takes every waking hour, that itself is a fail signal.
- Apply the kill-switchIf you cannot get 150 people to take a free action, stop; the idea has no pull.
- Convert 150 into 30 conversationsMove about 30 sign-ups into phone or text conversations to gather statistically significant feedback.
Priestley describes mocking up a new focus drink on a landing page with ChatGPT graphics: 'We're launching a new drink about focus and mental clarity. Join the waiting list, answer five questions, go in the running to win $500 of product.'
Taught by Daniel Priestley; the 150/30 thresholds recur across his accelerator's idea-validation process.