Improve decisions by treating every choice as a bet with uncertain outcomes
Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts · Annie Duke
Consult your past and future selves to escape present-moment emotional bias
Thinking in Bets: Key Concepts and Framework · Annie Duke
Bind your present self to honor the commitments of your wiser past self
Thinking in Bets: Key Concepts and Framework · Annie Duke
Judge decisions by process quality, never by outcome quality alone
Thinking in Bets: Key Concepts and Framework · Annie Duke
Knowing when to fold is the highest-leverage decision skill
Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong (Knowledge Project) · Annie Duke
Every decision is a bet — evaluate the process, not the outcome
Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong (Knowledge Project) · Annie Duke
Seek information that proves you wrong, not right
Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · Annie Duke
Every decision is a bet on the future under uncertainty
Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · Annie Duke
Replace ego-driven habits with accuracy-driven ones using the same reward loop
Thinking in Bets · Annie Duke
Detect when emotions have hijacked your decision-making and step away
Thinking in Bets · Annie Duke
Map possible futures and weight them by probability before deciding
Thinking in Bets · Annie Duke
Catch your own irrational thinking patterns with trigger words
Thinking in Bets · Annie Duke
Bind your future irrational self to better behavior in advance
Thinking in Bets · Annie Duke
Recruit your past and future selves into present decisions
Thinking in Bets · Annie Duke
Run your decision group like a scientific community
Thinking in Bets · Annie Duke
Build a group that rewards accuracy over ego protection
Thinking in Bets · Annie Duke
Sort every outcome into luck vs. skill to learn what really matters
Thinking in Bets · Annie Duke
Challenge every belief by imagining you have money on it
Thinking in Bets · Annie Duke
Stop judging decisions by their outcomes alone
Thinking in Bets · Annie Duke
Give yourself permission to experience happiness alongside grief
Option B · Sheryl Sandberg