Speculative Sleeve Allocation
Cap your speculation at a percentage you can lose.
Toby's reconciliation of his preaching (passive index funds) and his practice (he owns individual stocks and is open to a small Bitcoin position) is the speculative sleeve. Pick a fixed percentage — 5% or 10% — for speculation. Anything beyond that goes to the core global index fund.
The key constraint is asymmetric: 1% in Bitcoin will be enough if it does what its bulls promise, and 1% won't kill you if it goes to zero. The same logic extends to individual stocks. The sleeve is sized so the upside still moves the portfolio meaningfully but the downside is absorbable.
He also adds a 'don't add' rule for himself: his individual stocks bought at 2022 lows have grown into a meaningful share, but new contributions only ever go to the index. The sleeve is allowed to grow with returns but never with new capital.
- Size the sleeve so 0% return doesn't change your retirement plan.
- Asymmetric upside requires only a small allocation to matter.
- New contributions go to the core, not the sleeve.
- Bitcoin earns a sleeve slot as the only fully separate asset class.
- Speculation is a feature you allow, not the strategy you rely on.
- Pick a sleeve capChoose a single percentage (5-10% for most; some go up to 15%) that's the maximum the speculative sleeve can occupy. Anything above this triggers a stop on adding new speculative capital.
- Decide what counts as 'speculation'Individual stocks, Bitcoin, altcoins, leveraged ETFs, single-country bets — anything that isn't a broad global index fund or your tax-wrapped pension default. Be honest; thematic ETFs often belong here too.
- Set a 'no new contributions' ruleLike Toby, freeze new capital flowing into the sleeve. Let it ride or sell, but don't add. This means the sleeve naturally shrinks as a percentage as your core grows.Pro tipSet a calendar reminder annually to check sleeve % and rebalance if it's exceeded the cap.
- Allocate Bitcoin separately if you want itToby treats Bitcoin as the only crypto worth a sleeve slot — separate asset class, store-of-value thesis, decade+ track record. Most other crypto is, in his framing, 'mostly scams'. 1% sized so it would matter at 100x and not hurt at zero.WarningDon't increase the Bitcoin allocation because it's recently gone up — that's the trap that makes most retail crypto buyers lose money.
- Mark losses as tuitionWhen the speculative sleeve loses, label it explicitly as the cost of finding out — not failure of strategy. The core is doing the long-term work; the sleeve is for itchy hands.
Toby bought a bundle of individual stocks (including Alphabet) near the 2022 lows. They've grown into a meaningful share of the portfolio, but he stopped adding to them — all new contributions go to the index.
Toby's co-host bought Trumpcoin on launch weekend, made 760% in 12 hours, and was talked out of holding it just before it crashed. A friend bought Melania coin and lost 12%.
Toby reconciled the contradiction between his preaching (passive global indices) and his behaviour (individual stocks and Bitcoin curiosity) by formalising the sleeve. He didn't want to be the YouTuber who pretended he didn't have any individual stocks, but he also didn't want them to dominate his strategy. The Bitcoin question — 'rat poison squared' versus 'all in or you're an idiot' — pushed him to articulate the moderate position publicly.
The non-speculation example of his co-host buying Trumpcoin and making 760% in 12 hours, while a friend lost on Melania coin, reinforced that speculation has to be bounded.