Lists / People
Annie Duke
Thinking in Bets; resulting fallacy.
Former professional poker player and author of Thinking in Bets, applying probabilistic reasoning to business and personal decision-making.
63/ 100
Authority scoreEstablished
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Frameworks
Attributed to Annie Duke
Mental models, principles, and operating frameworks extracted from sources where Annie is the credited author or speaker.
20frameworks
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Backcasting and Premortem
Work backward from success and failure to plan the path
Strategy·from Thinking in Bets
CUDOS Norms for Group Engagement
Run your decision group like a scientific community
Communication·from Thinking in Bets
Decision Swear Jar
Catch your own irrational thinking patterns with trigger words
Self-Mastery·from Thinking in Bets
Habit Reshaping Through Truthseeking
Replace ego-driven habits with accuracy-driven ones using the same reward loop
Self-Mastery·from Thinking in Bets
Mental Time Travel Decision Framework
Consult your past and future selves to escape present-moment emotional bias
Mindset·from Thinking in Bets: Key Concepts and Framework
Mental Time Travel Protocol
Recruit your past and future selves into present decisions
Mindset·from Thinking in Bets
Outcome Fielding Framework
Sort every outcome into luck vs. skill to learn what really matters
Self-Mastery·from Thinking in Bets
Resulting Trap Awareness
Stop judging decisions by their outcomes alone
Mindset·from Thinking in Bets
Scenario Planning and Expected Value
Map possible futures and weight them by probability before deciding
Strategy·from Thinking in Bets
The Exploratory Thinking Protocol
Seek information that proves you wrong, not right
Mindset·from Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong
The Resulting Trap Escape
Judge decisions by process quality, never by outcome quality alone
Mindset·from Thinking in Bets: Key Concepts and Framework
The Strategic Quit Framework
Knowing when to fold is the highest-leverage decision skill
Strategy·from Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong (Knowledge Project)
The Thinking in Bets Framework
Every decision is a bet on the future under uncertainty
Mindset·from Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong
The Truthseeking Pod
Build a group that rewards accuracy over ego protection
Leadership·from Thinking in Bets
The Ulysses Contract System
Bind your present self to honor the commitments of your wiser past self
Self-Mastery·from Thinking in Bets: Key Concepts and Framework
The Wanna Bet? Belief Audit
Challenge every belief by imagining you have money on it
Mindset·from Thinking in Bets
Thinking in Bets
Every decision is a bet — evaluate the process, not the outcome
Strategy·from Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong (Knowledge Project)
Thinking in Bets Decision Framework
Improve decisions by treating every choice as a bet with uncertain outcomes
Strategy·from Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
Tilt Recognition and Response Protocol
Detect when emotions have hijacked your decision-making and step away
Mindset·from Thinking in Bets
Ulysses Contract
Bind your future irrational self to better behavior in advance
Productivity·from Thinking in Bets
Domains
Framework distribution
20frameworks
Mindset8 frameworks · 40%
Strategy5 frameworks · 25%
Self-Mastery4 frameworks · 20%
Productivity1 framework · 5%
Communication1 framework · 5%
Leadership1 framework · 0%
Bibliography
Sources by Annie Duke
7sources
Book
Appears alongside
Top neighbors of Annie Duke
8people
01
Adam Alter
Drunk Tank Pink; Irresistible; cue-driven behavior research.
1shared list
02Adam Galinsky
power and decision-making.
1shared list
03Amos Tversky
heuristics-and-biases program; Prospect Theory co-author.
1shared list
04Anders Ericsson
deliberate practice.
1shared list
05Andrei Shleifer
noise traders; inefficient markets.
1shared list
06Antonio Damasio
somatic-marker hypothesis.
1shared list
07Barbara Mellers
Good Judgment Project co-PI; forecasting accuracy.
1shared list
08Barry Schwartz
Paradox of Choice.
1shared list
Last updated
10 May 2026